I was at HD today and went to check on some lumber we need to make some angle jigs for the acrylic bender. a 2x10 was over $50.
OVER $50. FOR ONE!
I’d steal some from a construction site except it is now probably grand larceny. 
Of couse they still have some cheap 1 3/4" studs. and by cheap I mean they are as straight as a broke dick dog.
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You don’t have to steal from a construction site. Find a development going in and help yourself to their scrap bin. My rule is if it’s in the bin or in a pile with their lunch trash on top, it’s fair game. Otherwise it’s still theirs.
It’s all part of a joke that prices now put it in the grand larceny range. I don’t steal. But we will take a donation of a 2x10.
You might also check around for construction salvage places. I was just introduced to them and I’ve found a lot of good materials/fixtures at the ones here in California.
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There seems to be some good news on the horizon, as lumber futures have fallen dramatically over last 6 weeks or so:
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while I agree that is good news - what does that really mean for us?
The big box stores have this piece of lumber in the store for $50. If lumber futures drop in half tomorrow what will be the price of that same unsold piece of lumber even after a week? I’ll take a guess - $50. it will eventually come down some but it will take time.
LOL, I’ll need a donation receipt for say $3000.
It is outrageous the prices for wood. Do you know how long I will have to stay on unemployment to afford to build a shed in my backyard now???
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I probably need to up my insurance. I had a small fortune in really exotic hardwoods in my storage before this wood crisis. While I have not checked, I’m sure the prices of exotic woodshaven’t come down. So my small fortune may be worth a large fortune now.
Anyone need some Pink Ivory or ebony wood?
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Nice.
I’ve found the price hikes typically happen in the commodities, rather than the exotics. An example of this was during the Ammo price peak, general 22LR ammo was gone and prices were skyrocketing. But, I was able to easily purchase wolf competition 22LR for the same high price it was always at. LOL
That all said, it will take years for the ammo markets to truly roll back into the stock levels they once were. Rebuilding stock in a market sold out takes much more time than restocking normal churn. Especially, when the market has only grown in users rather than just prospectors snagging limited items.
My father works in the forest products business and just about every time we speak lately he says {prior month} was a good year in lumber. For the last ~18 months, monthly profits have been roughly equal to annual profits: record demand balanced against a deeply discounted market for logs has resulted in mills figuratively printing money relative to normal conditions.
Who knew my lumber portfolio would outperform my stock portfolio.
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There is more shortages to come. My customer Saturday said they had to go to 5 supply houses to get enough PVC(schedule 80) to temporarily pipe the machine in. They couldn’t get 4” steel pipe & fittings from what he was telling me.
I know I’m seeing more & more commonly stocked parts, out of stock.
We had a ship that had a motor on it denied entry to the port a few times. I think about a year after it was ordered it finally showed up. Bit of irony, it was for a manufacturer of toilet paper & other paper goods of similar nature.
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I’m no longer getting estimates for servers. Many parts were backordered 6 months and now they just say backordered with no ETA. I’ve never seen anything like it before. Vendors say you’ll get it when you get it. Went to a Toyota dealer on Friday and they had zero new inventory. It was a ghost town. It’s interesting to see how fragile supply chains really are when things go sideways.
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An accelerometer (chip) I need that’s made by ST is backordered 44 weeks and that’s just an estimate. Supply chains are screwed everywhere.
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Just give it 6 months or so. The problem is that most things aren’t sold directly to consumers they are sold to distributors/retailers. That means the cycle goes something like this.
Customer1: I’d like an ABC widget.
Distributor A: I’m out right now but I’ll put an order with ABC company right now.
Walks next door.
Customer1: I’d like an ABC widget.
Distributor B: I’m out right now but I’ll put an order with ABC company right now.
Walks next door and the scene repeats 4 times.
ABC company: Demand is through the roof, normally we sell 1 widget a month but we have orders for 6 right now! Tell the distributors it’s going to take some time to fill all these orders.
Distributors (all): Lead times are moving out, double the orders so we don’t get left behind.
ABC company: Holy Crap, demand has doubled again! Move the lead times out farther but sell the one widget we have to Distributor A.
Distributor A: Customer1, I have your widget.
Customer1: Thanks
DistributorsB-F: Hey Customer 1, we got your widget in and we have another one coming.
Customer1: Oh, I already got my widget I’m good.
Distributors (All): OMG all the buyers are gone, CANCEL, CANCEL.
ABC Company: Everyone is cancelling their orders, the sky is falling, SALE, SALE, SALE!
I’ve been in purchasing for 25 years, it ends the same way every, damn, time.
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The supply chain whipsaw effect.
Saw it with ammunition in many a prior panic and contributed to that noise myself. Most retailers just cancelled long-hanging orders, but I got at least one shipment seemingly at random some months later.
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If I’m going to give a “Purchasing analysis” speech I should finish it up though:
Lumber is highly regional. Texas lumber prices are going to stay higher than most parts of the country due to the fact that this winter’s freeze affected a lot of houses/buildings and repairs are still ongoing while the state is undergoing heavy growth. The repairs are finishing up though and new construction is slowing. Prices should moderate slightly into the summer with the national market then fall more significantly in the late fall.
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