Data science and COVID-19

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Interesting example,

Another data driven question around Corona is the Cell Phone Plan cancellations in China. 21 million mobile service plans have been cancelled over the last 3 months, equaling a 1% drop in market share in China. This drop is mirrored in a 1% drop in lan line service over the same period.

Not ringing conspiracy bells here, I’m not suggesting 21 million deaths. Just a weird number when you think of the scale of China.

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Wouldn’t put it past Chinese govt to cancel phone lines from quarantined areas to prevent video getting out.
Their black box speakers and drone patrols look like shots of Division 3 :smile:

I picked-up this story in The Epoch Times. China has lost 21M completely dependent cell users from their networks. This is CIA style analytics, or hype. I hold to the CIA Analytics model.

??? What are you talking about??? Sorry I don’t speak conspiracy theory. The dog whistles mean nothing to me.

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Me neither…

But from experience, I know how intelligence is gathered. It is mainly just simple statistics. Go see the CIA World Book: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/

Grow up.

I do not trust the PRC government and the CCP any further than I can spit on them.

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Curious…
We’ve probably all see a “flatten the curve” propaganda image (e.g. this one shared by Luke some days back )

Does anyone have anything on where we are on this? I keep seeing the graphics, but nothing about a “we are here” indicator. Someone surely had some kind of projections that served as the basis for this graphic, and we could match projected dates with the passage of time and see where we are in realizing the flattening of the curve. I haven’t found it, if it’s out there, and wonder if you have, if you would share.
Thank you.

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It’s too soon to tell most places because the rate of spread and the healthcare system capacity varies wildly across the country. New York is the most obvious because the hospitals are saying they’re out of ventilators.

The peak is still ahead so things will get worse before they get better in New York. Hopefully other areas can slow the spread better.

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Here is a good resource for Data,

Here is the current confirmed cases in the US Chart,

It looks like as a country we are still very much in the vertical up swing. Also, yesterday in the press conference with Trump, they are expecting us not to plateau for another two weeks if not longer.

Also, It seems estimates on China’s numbers are considered off by a factor of 15 to 40 times the numbers being reported.

As Chrowder would say,

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I suspect the true curve is somewhere between the two depicted, in some places (New York) closer to the red, others (Wyoming?) closer to the gray. I think most agree that the measures instituted so far ( the ones keeping us away from the makerspace ) are moving the curve to the gray. Remember, if we all look back and think those measure were completely unnecessary, they will have worked quite well.

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I wonder how many are people realizing that the goverment is tracking their movements via their cellphones. A lot of people do not realize that a cell phone is a radio transmitter continually broadcasting your location or at least the location of the phone. I suspect that there are no small number of people in this country who would turn off their cell phone or discard it if they realized that.

Here is an interesting graph. It is unlike other graphs in that it doesn’t graph cases over time, it works differently … I will let Minute Physics explain

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One report that a region thinks their SIP is working…


@Draco Thank you for that share. minutephysics is a :+1: in my book, and that’s a good episode…

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I find this web site interesting.

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More data science…

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More data science…

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I’ve begun to worry less that my government is tracking me, and grow more concerned with the OTHER people tracking me and what I do using technology (of which mobile phone is one). e.g. what does GooglroSoft do with my data? Nothing nefarious, surely. It’s all for my own good…

Speaking of whom…where is the tracking data from the android and other mobile phone providers out there? Seems like they should be able to put together some pretty interesting maps with regard tot his whole COVID thing… but then again, I forget, they just furnish data to others who publish “stuff”…
like this thing Bill linked at the start of this thread probably uses G*data.