I am confused…depending on site/source, my house market price is estimated/reported to be: $314,407 (Zillow); $299,800 (Realtor.com), $297,066 (Redfin); $330,200 (Smartzip…whatever that is). And I am sure other values on other sites.
I get that these estimates are from proprietary models and are going to be a bit different, but the range is hard to grok. Is any site known or considered to be more accurate than others? Or is there another independent tool out there one can consult?
note: I don’t really need a lesson on supply-n-demand, or statistics/statistical variation, or market economics. I am just onedering if there is a generally known accurate home value estimator tool somewhere.
I think you will not find one true source, you will find that 10-15% range as each model will value comps and other data differently. Id say asking a local realtor is your best bet and they should be willing to do it for free.
Indeed, but of course, they just turn around and plug one’s address into some tool or website estimator, i.e. “running comps.” I suspect if I ask 3-5 local realtors I will get 3-5 different answers with probably a similar range.
I’d also then have had conversations with 4-6 more realtors than I would really ever have wanted to.
I have thought that for a while. My favorite experience is contacting Zillow Offers to see what they would come back with, and they basically said “we start with our home value estimate of X and subtract costs of flipping house and then add amount for our profit == some number” and I said “why are you starting with a wildly different/lower home value number than Zestimate?” and the said “errmmm…ummm…duhhh…ahem…what’s that over there (pointing)” and then disappearing when I looked over there.
I also think in general the price fluctuates between who you ask. When i sold my old house i had an appraiser come out and appraise it for the buyer. Well the appraisal came back quite a bit lower than expected. Apparently even appraisers are even split in how they make appraisals, i think the other way was more common than how she did it but whatever.
Soo my buyer got like a 5% discount.
With these automated valuation models (AVMs) you kind of get what you pay for. Free, publicly available ones often have some rounding introduced so that businesses aren’t tempted to use those values rather than paying for one, or they’re crappy in-house developed models instead of the higher quality models that banks use for loan origination, for instance.
I’ll shill for my employer here and recommend the Realtor.com as being the most accurate (because it’s ours). If you’re really curious you could pay for an originations grade model with the accuracy score, standard deviation etc.
Generally speaking, they’re very accurate (within 5%-10% of actual sales price) if your house is typical size range for the neighborhood and you’re in an urban/suburban area, and not so accurate if it’s very atypical (huge lot, different quality finishes, etc.)
Actually I did notice that Realtor, Redfin, and my Gubmint Appraisal District values tended to form a cluster. (That does not mean they are better or more accurate, of course, unless one accepts the GAD value as “the truth”.)
Zillow was accurate with ours. The CAD was behind (which I’m ok with), who doesn’t like lower taxes? We had an appraiser do ours, which was inline with Zillow. He took into account houses in the neighborhood that sold within the past 90 days. No way in hell though would I pay that much for an old Fox & Jacobs house. Last I looked at Zillow for ours is about 200k. Gee thanks neighbors for improving your house. Lol
The thing to remember is that the price is only what someone else is willing to pay, that you are willing to accept. So many variables come into play. Even if you start with three identical homes, built the same year, floorplan, and options, you may get three different results. For example, one that has had minimal maintenance, no painting, and furniture that doesn’t show inviting use of the spaces is going to give minimal returns. One that has had every issue maintained to cosmetic perfection, and every room painted with current neutral colors in the past 3 years or so, with no wear marks or handprints on door frames, pet marks, etc will do better. And one that has been well staged, all the clutter of life taken away, and furnished to be well usable, but appear spacious will usually sell for more.
Also the psychology of sales will play in. Setting too low am asking price will move it quickly, but likely leaves some money behind. Pricing too high can keep some buyers from even looking, and can keep it on the market too long, where it doesn’t get fresh looks. The goal is to work with your realtor to find an asking price that is likely to move in a time frame you are comfortable with. Or even ask what sort of work or staging would be a good idea before listing, and how it will affect optimal asking price.
There’s also the agent and how hard they’re willing to work. Your agent will split their 3% commission with their agency, and kick some to their helper (who goes out and puts out signs and balloons and stuff). In the end, the extra $10,000 you want to hold out for may only mean an extra $100-125 to your agent (if that). So they may advise you to take a lower offer than you want so they can get the sale made and the commission booked.
My answer to finding a valuation you like is to take a statistical average of all of the websites if all you’re doing is computing your networth. If you’re really interested in selling it check with a reputable realtor and get their comps. The sales in your area will change daily. This in many ways changes the actual value of your home, if by value you mean what you can sell it for. Actually, take home from a sale will be considerably different based upon many factors, too such as closing costs, seller’s repair costs and other costs.
The tax value is seldom actually a representation of the real worth in my opinion as the appraisal district doesn’t actually always “appraise” a home but instead look at neighborhoods and your latest valuation and mark it up or down. How many times have you heard of people contesting their valuation? I think it does provide a good “floor” valuation though. IMHO
If you’re selling it by owner start high and negotiate down. Everyone loves a deal. As someone has previously said, “The real value of your home is what someone is willing to pay for it.”
There’s a classic test for legal aptitude. You ask the kid, “What’s one plus one?”
The future lawyer is the one who answers, “What would you like it to be?”
What I’m getting at is this: it depends on why you’re asking the question. You might be trying to challenge your tax appraisal, or trying to persuade a buyer what the fair price is, or figuring insurable interest, or valuing it for a divorce settlement, and so on. Reasonable minds can differ on the interpretation of the same data.
When I’ve needed to see recent comps, I use my realtor Donna Levine (214-704-0313).
If you look up on DCAD for an appraised value, it is always out of date if the market is shifting, as it was in near East Dallas last year. The house at 1019 Martinique we lived in for 3 decades was appraised at $265K, after several jumps over the recent years. Realtors (a couple) suggested $200-250K, but the house had deteriorated (not badly, but …) with my health issues and 4 investor firms offered $130K, $110K, $110K, & $90K “as is, take what you want, leave what you want.” We took the high one and moved to Senior Living rental. The buyers (or who they sold it to) radically redid the 100 y.o. house, adding a bath and small bedroom stripping many vintage details, and sold it for $310K. At DCAD it is still showing $265K with almost all our exemptions.
According to Zillow, Zillow has a Median Error of 1.8% in Atlanta and ‘- - -‘ in Dallas on day of or before the sale… I’m sure they don’t reevaluate once the house enters Pending Status or anything shady like that WOMP https://www.zillow.com/zestimate/