SIR Model for Spread of Disease

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Interesting read on modelling epidemics mathematically. They use data from the Hong Kong Flu Epidemic of 1968/69, from a strain of Influenza to which Americans had no immunity.

https://www.maa.org/press/periodicals/loci/joma/the-sir-model-for-spread-of-disease-background-hong-kong-flu

It looks like we are just getting started (maybe 2 weeks in) for this Corona outbreak. From the numbers and the data from China, it looks like we will start coming out of this in 6-8 weeks.

So far, fatalities here are less than 1/2 of what Italy (with their 12 year older population) is experiencing. Also, we seem to be preparing faster than Europe did (in everything but testing), this is critical.

I wish you all the best of health and fortune. Be smart, don’t take any foolish risks. But, understand this: now that this mutation is in the World, at some point you will most likely be exposed to it. What happens will depend upon your general health and age. You can’t alter your age, but you can bolster your immune system. Daily exercise, daily vitamins, good food, good sleep, and a positive mental attitude will go a long way.

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A common method to illustrate how common a disease is within a country is the number of cases per million population. On the following link, click the “Tot cases/1M pop” header twice to sort in descending order. As I write this at 10AM March 16, the number for Italy is 409.3 and for the US is 11.5. Lets do what we can to keep it low.

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