I just got out of a meeting with my job and they’re basically going to Defcon five starting Wednesday and not letting up so possibly Friday morning so between those time frames if you need stuff do it before that time otherwise the roads are gonna get nasty and it’s not worth it to be honest with you.
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An entire branch of mathematics was developed to predict weather. I believe wholeheartedly in science and mathematics and weather prediction is one of, if not the most difficult scientific/mathematical problems.
If anyone is interested there is a book called “Chaos” “making a new science”- James Gleick.
Here is a link that kind of explains it:
I mention all of these things because people go out and buy out grocery stores and gallons of gas and provisions every time these warnings go out and a lot of the time nothing happens. What people should actually do is just always be sort of prepared and react as needed.
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Back in the 80s I worked for Convex Computers, which made the world’s fastest air cooled computer at the time. (It is in the Smithsonian Museum) I was the operating systems manager and I had the privilege to travel to Hamburg, Germany to meet with DKRZ, which provides climate and weather analysis to Germany and most of Europe.
They purchased multiple supercomputers at the cost of millions of dollars to do weather modeling and forecasting. I met some very interesting meteorologists, mathematicians and engineers there. Their data center was very impressive.
Even with all the computing power, tremendous data models and lots of analysts, weather was and is still very elusive. Definitely one of the more challenging math problems.
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For a longtime resident of the south I have an unreasonable amount of experience driving on ice … and do not miss being expected to turn up at work despite being surrounded by distributed flashmob performances of Texans On Ice. There’s probably nothing so important at DMS worth the risk of driving there when roads are iced over.
But if one must, I always adhered to the following principles:
- Your sole responsibility is to DRIVE THE CAR SAFELY, which may prove challenging as driving does not ordinarily command so much attention
- No radio/podcasts/VR headsets
- No gawking at the winter hellscape
- No faffing around with your phone
- Maintain concentration and note subtleties like changes in slope, varying grip, transitions in pavement, slush becoming ice, etc
- Give every task a minimum of four times usual margin
- Do not test the limits of traction
- Deliberate movements only
- Plan every action in a dvance
- Do one thing at a time (i.e. brake then turn then straighten out then accelerate)
- Complete the one thing before doing the next
- Modulate deceleration with the throttle alone unless absolutely necessary; for routine stops you should only be braking to decelerate below engine creep speeds
- Acceleration more or less the opposite as deceleration - 30+ seconds to 20MPH
- For the love of all things precious to you, defrost your windshield, side/rear windows, and sideview mirrors before proceeding
- If you can read the plates of the vehicle in front of you while in motion you’re probably too close
And hey if it’s safe to do so and there are any big open parking lots around near your home go do some donuts and learn a thing or two about how your vehicle behaves on ice.
NOAA is reasonably good at it now in the short term.
Buy fast-expiring provisions, highly bespoke items, or in rampant excess it’s a waste, yeah. A bit of a hedge, some extra staples, something that can be used in other ways without inconvenience less so.
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On mornings when the roads are snow covered or ideally icy and most sane people have given up, I always go for a drive looking for a donut shop that is open, then I turn off my traction control and have a little fun on my way to the high school to do donuts in the parking lot while eating donuts with my radio cranked higher than normal.
That puts me in an awesome mood for most of the day.
Im fortune to not have to drive on major freeways even if I go into work. I don’t like driving on icy bridges
Or in traffic when its icy.
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This is the way. You’re learning where the actual edges of control are, and how to react when you do start sliding. EVERYONE who lives ‘up north’ has done this a few times and it’s one of the best ways to actually learn to drive on snow and ice.
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More than likely I’m going to get called out to work if we shutdown. Seems to happen every time. Luckily I get paid door to door in these instances. So if I get stuck in traffic for 4 hours, I’m atleast getting paid for it.
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I once had a job where I was responsible for the computer systems at a major medical practice. My overheating alarms went off. The A/C condenser was on the roof of the building. We got a cold snap with snow on the ground and icy conditions. The condenser froze up and the A/C unit stopped working in the data center. The HP Server fans were blowing at full speed, trying to keep their little motherboards cool. The building itself was obviously heated and when the individual A/C unit in the server room died the room got very hot.
We called out an emergency repair guy, and he fixed the A/C unit. I think he put cardboard on the sides of the unit so the compressor heat would keep the unit warm. (I can’t swear to this though as they came back after the cold snap to make sure everything was working again)
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I’ll add that you may or may not get to vote on whether you hit something, but you can completely control how fast you’re going when you hit it.
I had a car slide through a stop sign as I passed his side road. Roads were icy. Didn’t hit him but I’d have been going 20, not the speed limit (45) had I.
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The year that cobblestone ice was a thing I was crawling along on 635 on the way to work - a good >¼ mile spacing between vehicles and I’m doing maybe 25 MPH. A vehicle approaches from behind whose concession to conditions is to drive a touch under the limit at ~60 MPH. They pass me fine on a sweeping left curve, but hit the limit of traction terminating the maneuver 10+ car lengths ahead of me and pirouette down the road (sort of like this, but not as graceful) until they hook up with the shoulder … mostly … aligned with their vector and keep the shiny side up skidding to a stop. Both the driver and their vehicle look to be intact as I moved past so I didn’t stop.
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2021 I got called out twice to the same building. It was a 40 story building, the chemical feeder froze on the chilled water side. This actually caused enough water to be lost to where 40 floors of water had gone down the drain. They did not have a functioning make up water like they should. It took 8 hours to fill with a 2” line 40 floors of piping. Consequently the pumps for the data center on the 30th floor were still running. It killed the seals on them. This was for a major high end insurance company server room. They had to shut it down and transfer to another data center. Saturday of that same week they froze a 2” line going to the cooling towers. I told the customer they got lucky. Other facilities had catastrophic failures, including other data centers, including a major oil company. One of my customers told me they would no longer to curtailments by switching to Generator power as he could not get fuel. (Ironically that’s what happened to the oil to company that caused the catastrophic failure)
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In 2011 the facility I worked in was on generator power for some ~2 weeks. The rest of the neighborhood was dark for most of that time but our random office building was humming along - parking lot lights and everything. The fuel truck was a routine sight during that period; about 100 that the power utility was happily incentivizing my employer to curtail as 2011 was very close to being a 2021 event-scale event.
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I worked for Nokia and we regualrly had new Finnish expats. They’d see the forecast and say something like “Pfft, I know how to drive on ice.” I’d point out:
- No studded tires (almost required in Finland)
- There are 4.5 Million people on the roads that don’t know how to drive in snow and ice, who are actively trying to commit suicide, and take you along for the ride.
It usually took one event for them to be believers.
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And what passes for road preparation in this region is abysmal by the standards of places that see routine frozen precipitation.
Last time the region iced over I watched a DOT truck do a U-turn and drop a layer of sand on the FM 3040 bridge over TX-121 some 30 seconds before some fool flew past and nearly lost control at the transition point between terra firma and bridge.
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Latest from NWS as of 1/8/25 9:30 AM CST
Bottom Line
Impactful winter weather, including significant snowfall accumulation, is expected across a good portion of North and Central Texas Thursday into early Friday. A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect for parts of North Texas.
Significant Changes
● Portions of the Winter Storm Watch have been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning for the potential for heavy snowfall. The remaining areas will be assessed further today and either added to the Warning or transitioned to an Advisory for lesser amounts. Portions of Central Texas may also be included in the Advisory.
● There is increasing potential for a few isolated spots to exceed 8” of snowfall accumulation in intense snow bands. This is most likely to occur north and northeast of the Metroplex in our Red River counties. These specific areas are extremely difficult to pin down ahead of time, so we can only offer a general area where this may occur.
Overview
● A wintry mix is likely to develop early Thursday morning and increase in coverage and intensity throughout the day Thursday and especially Thursday night across North Texas, particularly north of I-20.
● North Texas: Temperatures will increase slightly during the day Thursday, perhaps to near or above freezing. A mix of a cold rain, snow, and sleet is expected to be the main precipitation type in North Texas.
○ Snowfall may become heavy at times during the day Thursday and Thursday night across parts of North Texas. While the forecast still mainly calls for snowfall amounts between 2 and 4 inches along and north of I-20, there is an increasing threat for intense banded snowfall north and northeast of the Metroplex. This may result in isolated snowfall accumulations in excess of 8 inches.
● Central Texas: A rain/snow mix is more likely across our Central Texas counties, but we are continuing to assess the potential for more icing across Central Texas IF temperatures trend a little colder.
● Travel Impacts:
○ Travel impacts are expected to increase during the day on Thursday. Morning commutes may be fine, but conditions may deteriorate around midday into the afternoon hours. Some locations may not see deteriorating roads until Thursday evening.
○ Any partial melting that occurs on Thursday would likely refreeze Thursday night as overnight temperatures fall to 25-30 degrees.
○ Travel impacts will continue into Friday while wintry precipitation gradually comes to an end from west to east.
● Widespread freezing temperatures are expected Friday night, but temperatures will warm up into the 40s/50s on Saturday. Any remaining water on the roadways will refreeze Friday night and create slick spots for morning travel.
I’m pretty sure that when you hit ice, you’re just supposed to take your foot off of the accelerator, don’t hit the break, Don’t turn the wheel excessively, try to gently and slowly get the car onto a safer route, And wait until your tire Grab traction again… It helps if you’re already going slow… I think you’re also supposed to let a little bit of air out of your tires in the snow in a emergency if your tires just won’t grab traction
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Take your foot off the gas only applies to automatic transmission vehicles without any regenerative braking capabilities. I’ve even driven a conventional automatic that will engine brake a moderate amount in some conditions.
Most electrics and hybrids, you want to feather the pedal like you would to maintain speed. No vehicle induced acceleration or deceleration.
But the big one is anticipate any bridges and overpasses to be sheets of ice, and make your breaking manouvers while still on solid roadway base.
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So we have winter weather warnings not watches. I heard a great analogy about the difference between a watch and a warning . Imagine that you have a bunch of plates with taco shells, taco meat, cheese and lettuce . That is a taco watch because the conditions are right for tacos to be built . Now imagine that you have plates of tacos, but they are on another table in another room . That is a taco warning . There are tacos, but they are just not yet where you are . I will never forget the difference between a watch and a warning . And now I want tacos for dinner .
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“Dallas” will never host another Super Bowl.
Four wheel drive may help you from getting stuck. It does nothing to help you stop. It does absolutely nothing to help the other guy stop.
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Tire Siping can help as well. My tires on my Jeep & Excursion are both Siped. They seem to help.
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