Interest Check: Enough Talk, let's gamble or DMS prediction markets

The idea for this comes from predictit, a futures trading (gambling) site hosted by a university in New Zealand that let’s you bet real money on US elections. Basically, a person offers a contract saying something like, I think there is a 5% chance that Dwayne ‘the Rock’ Johnson will be elected president in 2024. Another person looks at that contract and says “easy money”, I’ll bet $95 bucks against your $5 bucks… and when Dwayne ‘the Rock’ Johnson is elected in 2024 via his newly formed 3rd party, the Whigs 2, the second person pays the first person $95. Do you smell-l-l-l-l-l-l-l-l-l-l-l-l-l…what the Rock is cooking?

The hypothesis behind prediction markets is that they are more accurate than polls and have even been used to predict obscure stuff like when the Higg’s boson was to be discovered.

So, just some fun examples I was imagining we’d be doing with mock money and a leaderboard would be elections, when will DMS re-open, will the membership count be more than such and such by said date. Anyways, just wondering if this sounds fun or interesting to anybody else wanting to play on the most basic, bare bones site I could throw together…but also, don’t bet on it happening anytime soon soon.

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I actually won such a pool regarding it’s mass energy:
Was closest with 121 GeV with 125.3 being the measurement at the time.


I think you mean 121.0 GeV… never too late to hit that edit button. Heh heh, only messin’… good job!

Electric Boogaloo ?

Mostly… except for major revivals of the American Plan. President Johnson intends to lay the smack down on negative trade balances and decentralized lines of credit.

Curious, do you have a post from back then for how you arrived at your number?